An NFL Quarterback Purge Is Coming and the Alt-Leagues Can Benefit

By Pat Rifino

A QB purge may be coming in the NFL and the implications could trickle down to the XFL and USFL. Last year we talked about the financial earnings of alt-league quarterbacks, and the trials and tribulations many of these men deal with when trying to reach their goals. Mainly it was prompted by the retiring and unretiring (and now subsequent re-retiring) of Tom Brady and how now four QBs’ lives changed due to the return of the GOAT. 

Over the past two off-seasons per Spotrac 10 Quarterbacks have “retired” (RIP to Dwayne Haskins) while it appears the QB movement of off-the-street free agents have slowed down. This year 12 “off the street” QBs were re-signed by the NFL with three of them being released before the season's end. With the lack of movement with back-end QBs and the consistency at the QB1 position it only seems inevitable that a massive purge is coming. 

Currently, Aaron Rodgers, Colt McCoy, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Chase Daniel, Brian Hoyer, Josh Johnson, and Andy Dalton are all over 35 and have all been linked to retirement with Tom Brady officially announcing his “re-retirement” last week. While it appears Ryan will stay around for at least another year due to guaranteed money, a guy like Nick Foles who's under 35 and ended the season with a gruesome injury may be thinking it’s time to hang up the cleats. Traditionally the NFL expects to lose about four/five QBs a year to retirement but it appears that the number may be getting a bit backlogged.

Going into the 2022-23 AFC playoffs Patrick Mahomes is the elder statesman at 27, and his backup Chad Henne is going to be 38 going into 2023. While the backup QB position is the best job in the NFL it does appear at some point fiscally it may be more advantageous to move to a Shane Buchele-type QB to see if they are worth sticking. With the Chiefs “ride or dying” with Mahomes at some point Henne will have to hang up the cleats as he’s more of a glorified assistant than a spot starter despite a heroic performance in the 2020 playoffs for the Chiefs. With Henne only signing a 1-year deal for 2022, and a pending free agent is it possible Henne may be on the way to clearing a path for new blood in the NFL and leaving with the 38 million dollars he’s made over 15 seasons? 

As each season passes, it appears more and more QBs are starting. This year saw 68, 2021 saw 62, 2020 saw 58, 2019 saw 57, and 2018 54. Between injuries, coaches being held on shorter “leashes” and the constant need to find the “guy”. The NFL is constantly seeking and evaluating talent at the most important position. But, this bodes the question of when are we ready to just screw let's throw our QB3 out there rather than face the wrath of seeing Mike Glennon (looking at you 2021 Giants). While it’s not that fans thought Jake Fromm could supplant Daniel Jones it’s the fact Mike Glennon prior to his tenure had three opportunities to start and failed to cement his place in the NFL as a bonafide QB1 or even a high-end QB2. 

With the emergence of the USFL and the XFL outside of Paxton Lynch, Ben DiNucci, and AJ McCarron none of the allotted or signed QBs have started an NFL, showing the vast opportunity that is on the horizon for many young players. As the NFL continues to start more and more quarterbacks each year, is  it unrealistic to think that the alt-leagues could truly begin the process of a true “feeder system”?

Since the AAF in 2019, Garrett Gilbert, John Wolford, PJ Walker, Taylor Heinicke, and Josh Johnson have all started games at QB for NFL teams with Johnson being the only QB to start a game prior to his alt-league career (dating back to the UFL in 2012). With Quarterbacks like Case Cookus, Jordan Ta’amu, Kyle Sloter, and even Steven Montez garnering constant NFL interest it’s not outlandish to think many of today’s alt-leaguers could be next year's emergency QBs. 

With the “old regime” of QB1s and QB2s on the horizon it’s not out of the realm to think many of our favorite alt-leaguers are being thrust into competitive roles at the NFL. Because of this, the importance of alt-league football especially at the quarterback position can not be stressed enough at this time. With only Five of the 44 (AJ McCarron and Paxton Lynch not included) USFL and XFL QBs having thrown more than 250 alt-league passes, right now it’s crucial that the leagues continue to manufacture a product in an effort to keep the next group of emergency QBs at least somewhat prepped. 

What are the odds of an Alt-League QB will be called up?

The AAF saw Luis Perez, Brandon Silvers, Matt Simms, John Wolford, Josh Woodrum, Logan Woodside, and Garrett Gilbert all earn NFL contracts with Gilbert, Woodside, and Wolford all serving as primary backups since then, while Woodrum and Simms were on the IR for 2019. The XFL saw Josh Johnson, Taylor Heinicke, Jordan Ta’amu, PJ Walker, and Taylor Cornelius (CFL), all earn pro opportunities, while the USFL saw Vad Lee(CFL), Case Cookus, Kyle Sloter, KJ Costello, and Luis Perez earn contracts with pro teams in 2022. Moving forward it’s not unreasonable to think that at least 4 XFL QBs and maybe 2 USFL QBs get the “call” to earn an opportunity for 2023 with NFL teams. 

2019 seems to be the most successful transition among alt-league QBs. While the 2020 XFL class sports Heinicke, Johnson, and Walker, the AAF alums have also seen some playing time with John Wolford starting 4 games including a playoff game in 2020.

With the “expected” retirements of approximately Ten QBs coming in over the next seasons, it’s not unlikely that “proven” alt-league QBs may have a chance to actually thrust themselves into a position to succeed and extend their careers but the question bodes who and how?

The highlighted QBs in the XFL to make the jump to the NFL would have to be Kyle Sloter, Jordan Ta’mu, Reid Sinnett, Cole McDonald, Ryan Willis, and Bryan Scott. “Known” QBs like AJ McCarron, Brandon Silvers, and Luis Perez are more than likely to have NFL interest but the NFL knows these players in and out, and are likely viewed as mini-camp bodies or late-season additions regardless of how they play. 

For QBs like the Sloter, Sinnett, and Ta’amu true fringe guys who have tasted the NFL circle the task is simply to improve on past experiences, stay healthy and put together ten healthy games of tape. Scott, McDonald, and Willis have had NFL interest in the past with Willis even being active for the Bears last season however, the goal is for them to maximize their playing time in an effort to garner a “second look”. 

QBs that could retire in 1-2 seasons

For the USFL the main hopefuls lie with J’Mar Smith, Alex McGough, Paxton Lynch, Kenji Bahar, and even Aqeel Glass. With the exception of Glass all of the mentioned QBs have the experience from year one and must build on this to once again put together sustained healthy play in hopes of earning an NFL invitation to training camp. With the USFL sporting several “unknowns” not just at QB but at multiple positions, the USFL is in prime position to be utilized as a beacon of hope for 2023 UDFAs in an effort to prep their bodies and themselves for opportunities if NFL teams have last second injuries or retirements at not just QB but any position.

For years fans of the NFL have seen QBs like Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning, be available for 15-plus seasons for their teams. With a new influx of talent cemented behind several stalwart QB1s and invested QB2s, the NFL only seems to benefit from utilizing players who have been playing competitive football at a higher level than what we see during the fourth quarter of a preseason game. As the slow matriculation of the “staples” of the game moves on, it’s becoming a bit clearer now that there is a constant need to reevaluate talent. With game-ready players participating in “live” football games from February to July, it’s extremely reasonable that many long NFL careers can continue to be carved out in the NFL, that started with humble alt-League beginnings.